Countdown to tariff suspension period + intensifying divisions at the US Fed, copper prices continue to rise overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM News on July 2: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,927/mt. It surged straight up in the early session to hit an intraday high of $10,000/mt, then fluctuated upward throughout the session. It pulled back towards the end of the session, hitting an intraday low of $9,917.5/mt, and finally closed at $9,943/mt, up 0.66%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest reached 284,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 80,620 yuan/mt. It hit an intraday high of 80,930 yuan/mt in the early session, then fluctuated downward throughout the session. It hit an intraday low of 80,320 yuan/mt towards the end of the session, and finally closed sideways at 80,390 yuan/mt, up 0.46%. Trading volume reached 54,000 lots, and open interest reached 223,000 lots. Macro side, the current 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9. Trump has indicated that he is not considering extending the deadline. It is reported that India is seeking to reach a temporary trade agreement with the US this week, while Japan may face tariffs of 30% or 35%. Market concerns over the future policy direction have intensified, putting pressure on the US dollar and supporting copper prices. Meanwhile, divisions within the US Fed over its policy stance have widened. Although Fed Chair Powell reiterated independence and adhered to a "wait-and-see" strategy at the Senate hearing on June 24, the market still doubts whether he can maintain a neutral stance amid political pressure, which may further weigh on the US dollar. Fundamentals side, demand side, copper prices are at a high level near the 80,000 yuan/mt mark, significantly dampening downstream procurement sentiment. Although spot premiums opened high in the morning session, there was almost no trading in the market. Subsequent trading stabilization relied heavily on transactions by traders, with limited actual procurement volume from downstream players. Price side, in summary, with the US dollar under pressure, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs today.